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U.S. oil production is a 'real problem for OPEC', says top energy analyst Paul Sankey
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Paul Sankey, Sankey Research, joins 'Fast Money' to talk today's OPEC+ meeting, what's ahead for the energy markets and more.
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@danboyd2725
@danboyd2725
1 month ago
The US is energy independent on oil and a net exporter of oil and value added oil products. Europe is importing less oil as the electrification of transportation continues. With China's economic slowdown, the total imports of oil has dropped in the Asian markets.
OPEC can cut production, but the US and all non-OPEC producers will only increase production to take advantage of the price increase. If OPEC floods the market the World economy will accelerate on cheap energy and within a year stabilize higher prices at increased supply.
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27 replies
@Destorrrrr
@Destorrrrr
1 month ago
Saudi oil flooding the market would have major implications for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ability to fund it, that’s a dynamic that didn’t exist in previous instances
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17 replies
@rickagulia3767
@rickagulia3767
1 month ago
As you can see economies are slowing down around the world, it is going to be hard to keep the price of oil artificially high.
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1 reply
@kc4cvh
3 weeks ago
Since I bought a used BMW I3 almost three years ago, I've declined purchase on around twenty-three hundred gallons or seven short tons of gasoline. I hope this has increased OPEC's woes to a microscopic degree.
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2 replies
@morpher44
1 month ago (edited)
But, if Saudi Arabia does its flush, USA can fill up its national reserves at a much cheaper price.
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21 replies
@stevet6676
4 weeks ago
Funny, the Trumpers believe we don't produce oil at all, even though we are producing at record levels. Another point: why do we think consuming our own oil is wiser than saving some in reserve for the future while buying oil on the open market today? Maybe the chat should be "save baby save!!"
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16 replies
@sharifahjais3524
4 weeks ago
President Biden should just simply announce that he is thinking of greatly expanding oil production in the USA to send the oil markets reeling. Just thinking about it, you understand.
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8 replies
@ryanwalters6184
1 month ago
Hard to flush the market when we have massive viable oil storage.
Don't threaten us with a good time.
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28 replies
@kylepasta
1 month ago
This dude is a beast
Sankey research what a boss
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@stevencole7331
1 month ago
Its very simple . Us raises output while opec cuts . They gain profits from the higher price with higher production . As they say a win win while opec yes they may get a higher price but on less barrels sold
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1 reply
@frankcoffey
1 month ago
This is a no win situation long term. If the price at the pump goes up you accelerate the sales of EVs and if you go cheap you drive away investors.
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14 replies
@salvatorequattrocchi2582
1 day ago
American ingenuity & productivity set standard of excellence for the world!
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@Sandysand701
3 weeks ago (edited)
OPEC was asked to open the taps when the war in Ukraine started, they did not, don't know what they thought was going to happen, but even I knew the US would step in and fill the void, now they have a problem, investment has already gone back into US oil and gas, so you are looking at a time lag before OPEC can price them out of the market.
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1 reply
@coldflu
1 month ago
Production is easy. Politics are todays barriers to producers of real wealth.
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7 replies
@JohnDoe-wu4tt
1 month ago
He is telling a very different story now on oil prices. Pity as I believed his forecasts about future oil prices. How they change the narrative so easily.
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1 reply
@MohammadRauf1
1 month ago
Spare capacity came out of nowhere! Investors had been working with the theory of tight supply. That thesis is no longer valid. It will be a difficult one for O&G equities. Those in the red may have to cut short their losses.
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1 reply
@macmcleod1188
4 weeks ago
Not just U.S. production. EV's have replaced 2% of gasoline cars on the road resulting in 2% lower demand for gasoline. Given the lower fuel prices- people in gasoline cars will drive more and eat up that difference but EV's will continue to destroy demand for fuel at increasing rates over the next 7 years when new ice cars will be banned in many countries and states.
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6 replies
@davidmartin6266
2 weeks ago
We were supposed to run out of oil in 1979.
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@shanechostetler9997
5 days ago
It’s simple, the United States’s oil industry is the global leader in technology on how to profitably extract and produce a gallon of gas! Let’s do all we can to keep it that way.
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@lawrencehawkins7198
1 month ago
"U.S. oil production is a 'real problem for OPEC'..." OPEC. We can do without them. We have our own Oil/Gas. Let's use them.
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40 replies
Transcript
0:01
BARRELS PER DAY WILL COME TO
0:02
PASS.
0:02
THIS AS U.S. PRODUCTION HITS ITS
0:04
HIGHEST LEVEL IN HISTORY.
0:05
FOR A CLOSER LOOK AT WHAT IS AT
0:08
STAKE, SANKEY RESEARCH PRESIDENT
0:10
PAUL SANKEY IS HERE WITH US ON
0:15
SET.
0:15
>> HI, MELISSA.
0:15
>> I DON'T KNOW WHY YOU'RE NOT
0:17
CEO OF THIS THING.
0:18
>> OF SANKEY RESEARCH?
0:19
I'M THE JANITOR, I'M EVERYTHING.
0:21
YOU NAME IT.
0:23
>> IT WAS STRANGE, THIS PROPOSED
0:25
CUT WAS NOT MENTIONED, AND OTHER
0:27
COUNTRIES COME OUT WITH THEIR
0:28
OWN PLANS FOR CUTS.
0:29
I MEAN, THAT'S SORT OF WHAT WAS
0:30
NOT CONVINCING ABOUT WHAT THEY
0:33
WANTED TO TELEGRAPH TO THE
0:34
MARKETS?
0:34
>> YEAH, IT WASN'T CONVINCING.
0:36
IT'S ALREADY A PROBLEM WHEN OPEC
0:37
IS CUTTING AND THEY'VE ALREADY
0:38
CUT AND AS YOU SAY, THEY'VE GOT
0:40
A HUGE PROBLEM WITH U.S.
0:41
PRODUCTION LEVELS.
0:42
IT'S EXTRAORDINARY.
0:43
AND WHAT YOU'VE GOT TO REMEMBER,
0:44
THE U.S. INDUSTRY IS PLANNING ON
0:46
60, AND THEY ARE DELIVERING
0:47
THIS, YOU KNOW, 13, 14 MILLION
0:50
BARREL A DAY TYPE NUMBER, WHICH
0:52
IS INCREDIBLE.
0:54
IT'S A REAL PROBLEM FOR OPEC.
0:55
IF YOU LOOK AROUND THE WORLD,
0:56
GUYANA, THERE'S MAYBE SOME
0:58
CONCERNS THERE AT THE MOMENT,
0:59
BUT BASICALLY GUYANA, CANADA,
1:01
BRAZIL, WHICH IS PART OF THE
1:02
OPEC CONVERSATION TODAY, ARE ALL
1:04
DELIVERING GROWTH.
1:05
WE'RE ONLY TWO OR THREE YEARS
1:05
FROM, YOU KNOW, $40 OIL IN 2020,
1:09
NEGATIVE OIL IN THE U.S., AND
1:10
YET WE'RE SEEING THIS JUST
1:11
EXTRAORDINARY PERFORMANCE FROM
1:12
THE INDUSTRY.
1:13
AND IT'S A PROBLEM FOR OPEC.
1:14
>> SO, IF OPEC CANNOT BOLSTER
1:20
THIS PRICE, WHAT IS THE FLOOR
1:23
THERE?
1:23
>> THAT THEY FLOOD THE MARKET.
1:25
WE'VE BEEN SAYING, SAUDI JUST
1:26
NEEDS TO FLUSH THIS THING OUT,
1:27
AND IN THAT CASE, SAUDI WOULD
1:28
THEN TAKE SOME OF ITS SPARE
1:31
CAPACITY, MOST PEOPLE THINK
1:32
SAUDI CAPACITY IS AROUND 11
1:34
MILLION A DAY, 11.5 MILLION A
1:36
DAY.
1:37
THEY ARE DOING ABOUT 9 AT THE
1:38
MOMENT, SO, THEY CANNED A 2.5
1:40
MILLION BARRELS INTO THE MARKET
1:41
FOR SIX MONTHS AND JUST FLUSH
1:42
IT.
1:44
>> THE M&A AROUND THE SPACE HAS
1:45
BEEN REMARKABLE.
1:46
WE TALKED ABOUT IT, EXXON,
1:48
CHEVRON.
1:48
WE HEARD FROM OXY.
1:51
MARATHON PETROLEUM WITH A
1:52
WHISPER, PSX, WE TALKED ABOUT
1:54
ELLIOTT TAKING A STAKE.
1:55
I THINK THAT STOCK'S AT AN
1:57
ALL-TIME HIGH.
1:58
SOME OF THE DOWNSTREAM PLAYS ARE
1:59
STARTING TO SHOW THEIR METTLE.
2:01
THOUGHTS ON THAT?
2:02
>> WELL, THEY CONSOLIDATED,
2:03
RIGHT?
2:03
AND THAT'S WHAT THE UPSTREAM
2:05
INDUSTRY IS DOING.
2:05
YOU NEED -- I'M GOING TO DINNER
2:07
WITH A GROUP, THE CEO OF CH
2:14
CHEVRON.
2:14
WHAT THEY'RE DOING IS VERY
2:15
AGGRESSIVELY CONSOLIDATING WITH
2:16
THE REST OF THE INDUSTRY TO MAKE
2:17
IT JUST MORE EFFICIENT, YOU
2:20
KNOW, ECONOMIES TO SCALE.
2:21
IN THE U.S., YOU ONLY HAVE THREE
2:23
MAJOR REFINERS, RIGHT?
2:24
AND IT'S -- YOU MENTIONED
2:26
EARLIER, SHELL HAS PULLED OUT,
2:27
YOU KNOW, BP'S MUCH SMALLER, ET
2:30
CETERA.
2:30
THE BIG GUYS ARE A LOT SMALLER,
2:32
AS WELL.
2:32
SO, THE INDUSTRY HAS
2:35
CONSOLIDATED.
2:35
IT'S PERFORMING WELL.
2:36
AND THE ELLIOTT LETTER THAT YOU
2:38
REFERENCED TO PSX WAS ABOUT THE
2:41
UNDERPERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO
2:43
MARATHON PETROLEUM.
2:45
ELLIOTT TOOK SIGNIFICANT ACTION
2:46
TO MAKE IT MORE EFFICIENT AND
2:49
SHAREHOLDER FRIENDLY.
2:49
THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY TURNING
2:50
THEIR ATTENTION TO PSX.
2:52
THERE'S NOT THAT MANY DEALS THAT
2:53
CAN BE DONE STILL IN U.S.
2:55
REFINING.
2:55
THERE'S NOT THAT MANY LEFT.
2:57
WE HAVE, LIKE, 6,000 UPSTREAM
2:59
COMPANIES, A LOT OF THEM,
3:03
OBVIOUSLY, ARE TINY, BUT THERE
3:04
IS STILL MAJOR POTENTIAL FOR
3:05
DEAL.
3:06
AND THE LATEST IS THE OXJ JET
3:11
F
3:11
AROUND THE IDEA THEY ARE GOING
3:13
TO BUY CROWN QUEST.
3:15
SO, WE COULD GET ANOTHER DEAL.
3:16
IT WAS IN "THE WALL STREET
3:19
JOURNAL" YESTERDAY.
3:19
WE COULD GET ANOTHER DEAL
3:20
TONIGHT.
3:20
>> SO, THIS FLUSH, WHAT DOES
3:22
THAT LOOK LIKE?
3:24
AND IT'S -- IT WOULD
3:26
THEORETICALLY BE FOR A SHORT
3:27
AMOUNT OF TIME, BUT THE IMPACT
3:28
ON ENERGY STOCKS, I WOULD
3:30
IMAGINE, WOULD BE PRETTY
3:32
IMMEDIATE.
3:32
>> WELL --
3:33
>> SO MUCH LOWER.
3:34
>> IT'S PRECEDENTED.
3:35
IT HAPPENED TWICE IN THE LAST
3:37
TEN YEARS.
3:39
2014, SAUDI SAID, IF YOU DON'T
3:40
CUT, WE'RE GOING TO FLOOD.
3:41
THEY FLOODED IN 2014.
3:44
O
3:45
OIL WAS $110, IT BASICALLY WENT
3:48
IN A STRAIGHT LINE TO 50,
3:51
THANKSGIVING OPEC MEETING, IT
3:52
WAS 75 WHEN SAUDI ANNOUNCED THE
3:55
FLUSH.
3:55
IT WENT DOWN TO 50 IN JANUARY,
3:57
BOUNCED AND YOU HIT 27 THE
3:59
FOLLOWING YEAR IN FEBRUARY OF
4:02
2016.
4:02
AND THEN, OF COURSE, YOU HAD THE
4:04
COVID FLUSH, WHICH WAS TRULY
4:05
CRAZY, WHERE OIL WENT NEGATIVE,
4:07
SO, YOU KNOW, THAT DIDN'T WORK
4:08
OUT GREAT FOR THE PRICE.
4:10
SO, YEAH, IT COULD BE PRETTY
4:13
DRAMATICALLY, AND YOU'VE GOT TO
4:14
TAKE THE PRICE DOWN TO THE LEVEL
4:16
WHERE YOU STOP THE U.S. GROWING
4:18
AND I'M TELLING YOU, THEY'RE
4:20
PLANNING ON 60.
4:20
YOU HAVE TO TAKE IT BELOW 60 IN
4:23
ORDER TO REALLY CHANGE BEHAVIOR.
4:24
NOW, OF COURSE, THE WRIT COUNT
4:26
IS FALLING, BUT PRODUCTION IS
4:28
NOT, WHICH TELLS YOU THERE'S
4:30
PRODUCTIVITY GAINS.